Polymarket Predicts 50% Chance of Strategy Selling Bitcoin By 2026

A trending market on Polymarket is signaling growing uncertainty around whether Strategy Inc. could eventually sell part of its massive Bitcoin holdings this year.

As of this week, bettors on the platform are assigning roughly a 50% probability that Strategy will sell Bitcoin before December 31st, 2026.

The prediction has sparked debate across the Bitcoin and MSTR communities, especially as the company continues expanding its Bitcoin treasury strategy through debt offerings, preferred shares, and ATM programs.

Strategy currently holds one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries in the world, with hundreds of thousands of BTC accumulated over the past several years under Executive Chairman Michael Saylor. The company has repeatedly described Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset and has historically avoided selling its holdings despite extreme market volatility.

However, recent comments from CEO Phong Le have fueled speculation that a future sale may not be completely off the table under certain circumstances. During recent discussions surrounding capital structure flexibility and liquidity management, investors began debating whether Strategy could eventually monetize a portion of its Bitcoin stack if market conditions changed dramatically.

Supporters of the bullish thesis argue that the prediction market odds are overstating the risk. Many investors believe selling Bitcoin would contradict Strategy’s long-term mission and potentially damage confidence in the company’s Bitcoin-centric business model. Others point out that Strategy has continued acquiring BTC aggressively even during major drawdowns.

Meanwhile, bearish investors argue that growing leverage, rising interest costs, and macroeconomic uncertainty could eventually pressure the company into reducing exposure. Some traders also believe the market is pricing in the possibility of a small technical sale rather than a major liquidation event.

The prediction market has quickly become a trending topic among MSTR investors on social media, with many viewing it as a sentiment gauge for broader confidence in Strategy’s long-term Bitcoin strategy.

For now, the odds remain near even — highlighting just how divided the market is on whether Strategy will continue its “never sell” Bitcoin approach through the end of 2026.