Kalshi Traders Give Strategy Just 2% Odds of Joining the S&P 500 in June
Highlights
- Kalshi traders currently assign Strategy a 2% chance of joining the S&P 500 in June.
- The prediction market suggests investors see inclusion as highly unlikely this month.
- Strategy remains one of the most closely watched candidates due to its size and Bitcoin treasury.
- An eventual S&P 500 addition could trigger significant index-fund buying of MSTR shares.
Prediction market traders are not expecting Strategy to join the S&P 500 this month. According to Kalshi, the probability of the company being added to the benchmark index in June currently stands at just 2%.
The low odds come ahead of the S&P 500’s quarterly rebalance, which is scheduled for June 18. Investors have closely followed Strategy’s eligibility for inclusion due to its size, growing market capitalization, and status as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
While some shareholders believe MSTR could eventually be added to the index, Kalshi traders currently view a June announcement as unlikely. An eventual inclusion could be significant for the stock, as index funds that track the S&P 500 would likely be required to purchase shares.
