MSTR and the US Midterm Elections
The 2026 US Midterm Elections are approaching, and it got me thinking: how does Bitcoin perform during US midterm election years, and what could that mean for Strategy (MSTR) stock?
In this article, I’ll look back at the previous US midterm election years, compare Bitcoin’s performance during those periods, and share my thoughts on what it could mean for MSTR during the 2026 midterms.
Effect of the US Midterm Elections on MSTR Stock
Strategy adopted the Bitcoin Standard on August 10 2020 so there has only been 1 US Midterm Election day during the company’s 5+ year BSE ERA: The 2022 US Midterm Election.
The 2022 US Midterm Elections were held on November 8th, 2022 to determine all of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 out of the 100 Senate seats to determine the new Congress makeup.
The US holds congressional midterm elections every four years. The next election will take place on November 3, 2026.
Bitcoin has now experienced three previous US midterm election years: 2014, 2018 and 2022.
Interestingly, Bitcoin suffered major drawdowns during all three of those years.
| Midterm Year | Bitcoin Performance |
|---|---|
| 2014 | -59% |
| 2018 | -75% |
| 2022 | -64% |
Bitcoin’s performance during these three midterm years was brutal. Each one produced a major bear-market decline.
The previous three midterm years are interesting because Bitcoin didn’t simply crash on Election Day.
The major declines happened throughout the year.
- In 2014, Bitcoin entered a prolonged bear market after its 2013 bull run.
- In 2018, Bitcoin crashed after reaching nearly $20,000 in late 2017.
- In 2022, Bitcoin collapsed following the 2021 bull market and eventually bottomed around the end of the year.
While many crypto experts believe Bitcoin will pump higher in Q4 2026, I discovered that all previous 3 Q4’s during Midterm Election Years were red quarters for BTC.
MSTR shares were down 33% during Q4 2022 and also down 25% in November 2022.
How Long Did The MSTR Midterm Election Crash 2022 last?
The 2022 US Midterm Election Crash started 1 day before November 8th 2022 when MSTR stock traded at $24.
MSTR shares fell from $25 to $14 (down 37%) and finally bottomed around 2 weeks after the 2022 US Midterm Election day. It’s also around the same time of the 2022 MSTR FIFA World Cup crash coincidentally.
If history repeats then MSTR could start crashing on November 2nd 2026 (approx. 1 day before the 2026 US Midterm Elections).
MSTR Price Prediction for the 2026 Midterm Election
I’m watching Bitcoin closely heading into November.
If history repeats itself, Q4 2026 could be another difficult year for Bitcoin and MSTR.
If Bitcoin experiences another major correction, I would expect MSTR to experience significant volatility as well.
But there is another side to the historical pattern.
Bitcoin’s previous midterm years were followed by major recoveries.That means I don’t necessarily view a midterm-year crash as a reason to avoid MSTR.
I view it as a potential buy-the-dip opportunity.
My MSTR Midterm Election Gameplan
I plan to hold MSTR put options and mostly cash throughout September until October 2026. History shows that MSTR and BTC could recover sharply in years where August was a bullish month.
However, I also expect another major MSTR crash in November 2026 so I won’t be going all-in on MSTR shares and call options anymore.
I’m looking to raise cash and slowly buy back my original position in late September but will hold off on call options to see how things play out.
If we get another major Bitcoin correction heading into the November 3 election, I would rather have cash available to buy the panic than be fully invested beforehand.
My basic strategy is simple:
If MSTR crashes, I buy the dip.
The historical midterm pattern doesn’t guarantee that Bitcoin will crash in 2026. Bitcoin’s market structure is also very different today because of institutional adoption and spot Bitcoin ETFs.
But three consecutive midterm years with major Bitcoin drawdowns is enough for me to pay attention.
If history repeats, 2026 could eventually give MSTR investors another major accumulation opportunity.
And if Bitcoin begins another major bull market after the midterms, I want to be positioned before everyone starts chasing MSTR higher.
