MSTR Bottom Prediction for 2026
Did MSTR bottom yet? That seems to be a very common question circulating around the Strategy and MSTR investment community.
I receive extremely bearish price prediction for MSTR stock on my Youtube channel every week saying MSTR shares will crash to $10!
The truth is that this current MSTR bear market cycle looks almost exactly like the 2022 nightmare when MSTR shares crash around 74%.
I wrote this blog post to provide a detailed and technical analysis of why MSTR stock most likely already bottomed in February 2026 at around $104.
Did MSTR Already Bottom on February 5th 2026?
It’s possible that MSTR already bottomed on February 5th when MSTR shares hit $104 on the daily chart.
The Daily RSI reached a low of 24 and that’s when MSTR stock went on a massive run from $104 to $197 on May 11th 2026.
$104 is a very strong long term support level that prevented MSTR from dipping below the $100 psychological barrier. This is a very important price range because STRC normally trades at $100 at par.
If MSTR common stock dips below $100 then it looks awful for MSTR to be worth less than STRC.
I hope that $104 was the ultimate bottom this bear cycle but you never know just how long Bitcoin will dip in 2026.
Predicting a MSTR and Bitcoin Bottom During the Crypto Bear Market
Bitcoin bear markets have lasted around 1 year historically since Bitcoin usually follows a pattern of 3 years of positive returns followed by 1 year of negative returns or consolidation.
The October 6th 2025 Bitcoin All-Time High of $126,000 was the beginning of BTC’s crash below $80,000.
It’s been over 7 months since Bitcoin reached an all-time high, which means we probably have less than 4 months of bear market FUD until we move into the highly anticipated Q4 2026.
My estimate for the MSTR bear market bottom is September 18th 2026.
I selected this date because it correlates to the approximate pasing of the Clarity Act into law. Mid-September is also the month before October aka Uptober when Bitcoin and MSTR usually start soaring in price.
My Gameplan for MSTR Until Q4 2026
I sold 40% of my MSTR shares at $182 one day before Strategy’s Q1 2026 earnings report and bought STRC to collect some passive income in the meantime.
I’m also holding MSTR put options with a low strike price and expiration date through the summer of 2026.
I’m a strong buyer anywhere below $150 but would love to buy back my MSTR at $125. I don’t want to wait for MSTR to retest $104 again because that may never happen.
If I’m able to buy again under $125 then I will simply buy as many shares as possible and HODL until after the 2028 Bitcoin halving event.
